GBFM – the Great Britain Freight Model
GBFM is an integrated software/database system linking domestic and international GB freight data with simple economic models for explaining freight demand and allowing trend and scenario based forecasting. The model has been developed independently by MDS Transmodal, originally as an in-house system to make good use of available transport data.
GBFM has since been expanded, in partnership with various organisations including the UK Department for Transport (ITEA Division), the Freight Transport Association and HM Revenue and Customs. GFBM has recently undergone a major overhaul. Version 5.0 was released in early 2008. See the methodology and user guide.
GBFM is an evolving system. It represents our attempt to provide a tool for establishing a consensus on the impact of transport policy, the causes of traffic growth, the relationship between trade and inland traffic and the effects of competing transport modes. Outputs from the model include modal forecasts and results that can be assigned to networks and represented graphically.
We have used the model for many commercial and policy orientated applications including:
- National road forecasts
- National rail forecasts
- Port traffic forecasting
- Local and regional studies
- Lorry road user charging
- Impact of higher fuel costs
- Justifying the need and modelling the traffic generated for various proposed rail-connected warehousing sites
- Testing the viability of proposed ferry routes
- Specific road corridor schemes (for example M^, Dartford Crossing)
Rail Freight Forecasts
Both passenger and freight traffic is expanding so rail capacity is becoming increasingly scarce, particularly at certain bottlenecks.There are various significant independent factors likely to encourage the growth of rail freight over the coming years:
- An increasing reliance on imported goods - particularly through the major container ports (all with rail terminals).
- The difficulty in gaining planning consent for new warehouse sites without including a rail connection.
- Higher long term fuel prices: fuel costs are a greater proportion of overall costs for HGVs than they are for trains.
The other significant likely change in railfreight movements is coal: various pits and power stations are due to close while some coal ports have recently expanded their capacity.
There is a need for these factors to be taken into account, along with the specific locations of likely port and rail-connected warehousing developments, and coal pit, port and power stations changes to produce forecasts of numbers of freight trains, line by line.
MDS Transmodal in conjunction with the Rail Freight Group and the Freight Transport Association produce such forecasts. These line-by-line forecasts enable the railway industry to plan for the future with correctly targeted improvements to the network. Our latest forecasts were released in August 2008 and are shown below:
- Average number of freight trains run every weekday throughout 2007
- Working Timetable weekday paths in 2007 (the average number of timetabled paths available for freight trains). Typically there is a need for more available paths than trains actually run to allow for some flexibility. Anything above an average of 80% path utilisation is optimistic
- Forecast for 2030
- 2030 Capacity shortfall if no increase in available paths - represented by: 2030 forecast MINUS 80% of timetabled paths in 2007
- Legend: Average weekday number of trains. Sum of both directions.
- Associated rail forecast presentation
They highlight particular locations likely to suffer from significant capacity shortfalls unless infrastructure improvements are made e.g.:
- Great Eastern Main Line (between London and Ipswich) near London where the building of London Gateway container port (North Thames - with huge associated warehouses) along with expansion at Felixstowe and Bathside Bay (Harwich) container ports will generate many extra trains. This is on the same railway lines as the proposed Crossrail trains.
- West Coast Main Line north of Crewe. The mainly 4-track railway reduces to 2 tracks for a section north of Crewe. The building of several proposed major warehousing sites in the North West and Scotland, along with container port expansion at Liverpool will generate many more trains.