Impact of 48 tonne HGVs on 2033/34 rail freight forecasts
Impact of 48 tonne HGVs on 2033/34 rail freight forecasts
Client: Freight on Rail
Date:2019
To forecast the impact of increasing the maximum gross vehicle weight (GVW) of HGVs allowed on the road network from 44 to 48 tonnes.
The Question
How could an increase in the gross vehicle weight for all HGVs on British roads from 44 to 48 tonnes affect the modal split between rail and road?
The Solution
MDST completed a research study which involved:
- Calculating the increase in tonnes per HGV that could be transported for both bulk and non-bulk cargoes in larger articulated vehicles.
- Running a scenario using the Great Britain Freight Model (GBFM) to test the potential impact on road and rail flows of a reduction in HGV costs for larger articulated vehicles.
- Comparing the results of this scenario with the rail freight forecasts produced for Network Rail by MDST for 2033-34 to calculate the impact on demand for rail freight broken down by sector (construction materials, intermodal etc.).
Achievements
The report provided to the client was used as a source of evidence in its contacts with stakeholders.