Global containerised trade (including maritime and overland flows) continued its expansion in 2025, reaching 324.3 million TEU, up 3.4% on 2024. Growth was led by exports from the Far East, which rose by more than 7%. North America, by contrast, was the only region to experience a contraction in exports, down by 2% reflecting the ongoing effects of US tariffs on key trading partners. The long-term view from 2006 to 2025 shows that such shifts are not unusual: trade flows often reroute temporarily in response to shocks, but overall volumes continue to grow, highlighting the resilience of global logistics networks. US trade flows illustrate these adaptive patterns. Exports fell slightly by 2.3% in 2025, with declines to North America (-4.7%) and the Far East (-6.9%) offset by growth to Europe (+5.9%), Latin America (+4.2%), the Gulf & ISC (+2.2%). Imports were broadly stable (-0.7%), though the Far East contracted slightly (-1.4%) while the Gulf & ISC grew by over 10%. These figures suggest that while US–China trade is under pressure, overall flows are adjusting rather than disappearing, and alternative suppliers are stepping in. At the country level, US imports from China fell sharply by 18%, yet total Far East imports declined by only 1.4%, as Vietnam (+23.7%), Thailand (+31%), and Malaysia (+32.9%) counterbalanced the drop. On the export side, US shipments to China also fell 18%, but exports to Vietnam (+48.6%), India (+9.7%), and South Korea (+4.3%) increased. This diversification demonstrates a strategic shift within the Far East, as the US reduces dependence on China while engaging more actively with other regional partners. China’s broader trade patterns reinforce this trend. Exports to the US dropped 18%, but flows to Europe rose 11%, to Sub-Saharan Africa 25%, and to regional Far East partners 10%. Imports into China declined modestly (-1.2%) but showed shifts in origin markets. These movements illustrate the adaptive nature of global trade: when one corridor contracts, others expand to maintain overall flow, demonstrating that trade is like water: it will find new channels to continue moving. Europe and the Gulf are emerging as beneficiaries of these rerouted flows. EU exports increased 2.1% in 2025, driven by strong intra-European trade and Germany’s growth (+8.1%), while imports rose 4%, led by the Far East (+11.6%) and Gulf (+12.1%). This demonstrates the flexibility of global networks: when US–China trade slows, Europe captures displaced flows, maintaining balance in logistics and reinforcing its strategic importance. Historically, similar rerouting has been observed during previous US–China tensions or after systemic shocks like the 2008 financial crisis. Typically, flows rebalance once tariffs or disruptions subside. However, the scale of adjustments in 2025 is notable, suggesting some realignment could be longer-lasting, especially if supply chains permanently shift to alternative suppliers. The overarching lesson is clear: trade adapts. Even under pressure from tariffs or geopolitical shocks, goods continue to move, finding new pathways and alternative partners. For industry stakeholders and decision-makers, the imperative is to monitor not only the total volume of trade but also the changing routes and relationships that define the future of global commerce. The patterns emerging in 2025 offer both challenges and opportunities for infrastructure planning, supply chain resilience, and strategic engagement with emerging markets.

City logistics is vital for local economies, yet unmanaged deliveries lead to congestion, additional emissions, inefficiencies for logistics operators and complaints from residents. This 30-minute lunchtime webinar provides data-driven insights and practical, low-cost recommendations from a study on city logistics in the heritage city of Chester in Northwest England. It shows how the public and private sectors can work together to balance the economic vitality of their towns and cities with sustainability objectives and quality of place. The webinar will be hosted by Chris Rowland , who has 30 years' experience working as a freight transport economist specialising in the impact of policy on freight transport operations. He has a particular interest in city logistics, having completed projects on 'last mile' logistics for the European Commission, the Urban Transport Group, a range of English city regions and the National Transport Authority in Ireland.

We’re very pleased to announce that MDS Transmodal has teamed up with Mark Grimshaw Smith and Geoff Lippitt as Associates, further strengthening the depth, breadth and delivery capability of our services to commercial clients in the freight and logistics sector both in the UK and globally.

A potential freight and passenger ferry service directly linking Scotland to the Continent is being planned for later in 2026. While MDS Transmodal worked with Scottish Enterprise at the turn of the century to launch the first service, it is now 8 years since a freight-only service stopped and some 16 years since passenger and freight services ceased. While the Scottish port would, as before, be Rosyth, the continental ports is planned to be Dunkirk in France.

Connections to global markets and supplies are a precondition for trade driven development, investments, and jobs. Here, we analyze how the global shipping network has evolved and the impact on countries position in the network over the last two decades. 

While the Chancellor of the Exchequer introduced a distance-based tax for electric cars – but not for HGVs or LGVs – in the 2025 Budget, the freight industry regards the eventual introduction of a road pricing scheme for HGVs as being inevitable. Based on modelling of freight transport flows in Great Britain, what could the impact of such a scheme be?

To support long-term strategic planning and investment in the UK rail freight sector, the Great British Railways Transition Team (GBR-TT) commissioned MDS Transmodal to produce detailed forecasts of future rail freight demand for the years 2040/41 and 2050/51. This analysis provides a scenario-based outlook on how evolving market conditions and policy decisions could shape the trajectory of rail freight over the coming decades.

This major study, carried out on a pro bono basis for MDST’s home city, used primary research techniques to establish any issues related to delivering goods into the historic city centre of Chester. The city has a very well-established pedestrianised zone, which means that deliveries of freight are banned in the city centre for most of the working day. The research highlighted some of the key issues that emerged, which mainly related to a lack of flexibility for logistics operators in making deliveries and a lack of choice for city centre residents for the collection of parcels using active modes of transport. The Report suggests some potential solutions and these are most likely to be a combination of minor, low-cost enhancements to the infrastructure for deliveries – such as well-designed loading bays and improved signage – allied with appropriate enforcement and more options for convenient parcel collections by city centre residents on foot or bicycle.

During the 2000s, fuel duty for road vehicles increased annually by the rate of inflation. While this policy has never officially been abandoned, between 2011 and 2022 the rate of duty was frozen, and then further reduced by 5p per litre in 2022 following the invasion of Ukraine. What has been the impact in terms of tax revenue and costs to the logistics industry?