Containers

Containers

First-class analysis of a constantly changing market

The twists and turns of the global container shipping industry require constant attention. An enthusiastic and experienced team of professional maritime economists and data analysts between them maintain global trade and container shipping databases which enables the up-to-date data and expert analysis that clients demand.

Internationally recognised source of independent data, forecasts and market analysis

Trade Lane analysis

  • Analysis of the transport supply-demand balance and container shipping economics for global trade lanes with a particular focus on containerised trade. This is carried out by monitoring global containerised trade using the World Cargo Database which is a harmonised database of the world’s trade, and global container ship deployment using our Containership Databank. This allows us to establish the supply-demand balance on an on-going basis.
  • Aggregated level results from this on-going analysis are published each month in Lloyds Informa Containers.

Liner Shipping Connectivity Index (LSCI)

This index, developed with UNCTAD, is an indicator for countries’ and/or ports’ positions within the global liner shipping network.


The LSCI is generated from the schedules of the world’s container shipping fleet and uses six components:


• The number of scheduled ship calls per week in a port;

• Total scheduled container shipping capacity calling at that port in TEU;

• The number of regular liner shipping services calling at the port;

• The number of liner shipping companies that provide services to and from the port;

• The maximum average size of the ships deployed by the scheduled service;

• The number of other ports that are connected to that port through direct liner shipping services. A direct service is defined as a regular service between two ports; it may include other stops in between, but it excludes indirect services via transhipment.


The six components underpinning the LSCI for the top 100 best connected ports in the world for the most recent quarter (compared with the same quarter of the previous year) can be purchased via our web application, https://www.portlsci.com/


Based on MDS Transmodal data, Jan Hoffmann (Trade Logistics Branch, UNCTAD) and Julian Hoffmann (Data Analyst, London) have produced a fascinating infographic showing changes in the Bilateral LSCI over time; https://unctad.org/en/pages/newsdetails.aspx?OriginalVersionID=2449


More data can be provided on a bespoke basis for any of the other  container ports worldwide (approximately 900). For more information contact Antonella Teodoro, antonella.teodoro@mdst.co.uk


Monitoring supply and demand

  • Supply: The Containership Databank: tracks the deployment of the world’s containership fleet 
  • Demand: World Cargo Database and Database of global container port TEU throughput

Modelling revenues, costs and profitability

The Container Business Model (CBM) models the economics of the global container shipping industry and combines data from the Containership Databank (which tracks the deployment of the world’s container shipping fleet) with the consultancy’s trade database (the World Cargo Database) to allocate world trade in maritime TEU to container ships, synthesising transhipment as required and, therefore, utilisation. The model, which is calibrated against the financial results of the more transparent global shipping lines, provides estimates of revenue, costs (ship costs, bunker costs, terminal handling costs etc.) and profit by trade lane and has been used by several global shippers to help them understand shipping line costs. 


The End to End Container Cost Model (E2ECCM) is a transport cost model that calculates the cost of transporting containers by sea making it possible to test the competitiveness of container ports worldwide.  For the UK, the model also estimates the inland costs (i.e. cost between an UK container port and an inland destination by road or rail). The model can be used to:

  • Examine the existing competitiveness of ports and terminals on particular trade lanes and for specific services.
  • Test ‘what if?’ scenarios where the model assesses the impact of changes in competitiveness, such as an increase in the oil price, a change in shipping line strategy or a proposed increase in handling charges.

Box Trade Analyser

Box Trade Analyser is a demonstration of our trade data, container supply data and outputs from financial modelling of the global container industry. The data has been compiled and calculated by MDS Transmodal. 


Using the Box Trade Analyser it is possible to explore the richness of the data that underpins our strategic advice. For example: 

  • the trade in tonnes and TEU between regions,
  • the services that carry containers between regions, countries and ports, depending upon which page is chosen,
  • the profitability and costs on region to region flows of containers,
  • the level of utilisation between regions,
  • the commodities traded between regions and countries,
  • the capacity deployed by the major container lines.

Market and feasibility studies for ports

Market and feasibility studies, business cases and business plans for container terminals and related port infrastructure are based on an analysis of the market and policy/regulatory environment, leading to a sizing of the market and a quantified estimate of potential market share and competitive threats.


Approach

  • Sizing the market: definition of the market and trends in market size based on official data incorporated with MDST’s own trade database WCD.
  • Market trends:  analysing the key drivers of demand.
  • Competition: analysing the competitive challenge provided by other modes and operators.
  • Competitive advantage: assessing the key benefits provided by the proposed infrastructure.
  • Quantifying demand:  using a modelling technique to estimate the demand & market share.
  • Financials:  forecasting revenue, costs and net cash flow or profitability.  

Outcome

Quantified analysis of the market potential, the competitive advantage of the port or terminal and, if appropriate, its net cash flow or profitability. 


Assessment of the container shipping market

Assessment of the container shipping market, competition and market share analyses for shipping lines and their advisers, especially with respect to mergers and acquisitions with consolidating container lines and alliance development.


Approach

  • Sizing the market: definition of the market and trends in market size based on MDS Transmodal’s database of shipping supply: the Containership Databank.
  • Policy & market trends:  analysing the key drivers of demand.
  • Competition: analysing the competitive challenge provided by other operators.
  • Competitive advantage: assessing the key benefits provided by the proposed service or ship investment.
  • Quantifying demand:  using a modelling technique to estimate the demand & market share.

Outcome

Quantified analysis of the market served and the share of total relevant market as defined for the exercise. 


Due diligence

Commercial due diligence services for buyers or vendors of container terminals have included inter alia an examination of market conditions, operating costs, infrastructure requirements, regulatory environment and forecast financials.  Particular attention has been paid to the competitive position of the assets involved, relative to other actors in the respective markets.


For more information click here 

Data and analysis is supplied on a regular basis:

United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) has published its latest Liner Shipping Connectivity Index (LSCI) which now uses data supplied by MDS Transmodal from its Containership Databank. UNCTAD’s key role is in supporting developing countries to access the benefits of a globalized economy more fairly and effectively.
High level analysis of global containerised trade, global container shipping supply and the supply-demand balance is published each month in the Containers section of Lloyds information portal. Our forecasts are regularly covered in Lloyds List.
To see our latest insights on latest events in the container shipping market, click here

Why MDST?

MDS Transmodal is a recognised authority for data and trade analysis of the global container fleet and global container market. Our data analysis is sought by a variety of companies and clients around the world. Outputs are used by UNCTAD and published in specialized trade magazines.

We supply data, analysis and comment to container shipping lines, global port and terminal operators, shippers, trade associations and financial institutions.
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