Strategic outlook for UK rail freight: 2040 and 2050 forecast scenarios

Chris Wright • November 20, 2025
To support long-term strategic planning and investment in the UK rail freight sector, the Great British Railways Transition Team (GBR-TT) commissioned MDS Transmodal to produce detailed forecasts of future rail freight demand for the years 2040/41 and 2050/51. This analysis provides a scenario-based outlook on how evolving market conditions and policy decisions could shape the trajectory of rail freight over the coming decades.

Scenario-based modelling

The report presents four distinct scenarios for each forecast year, reflecting varying degrees of policy support and infrastructure investment:
  • Scenario 1: A road-centric future with minimal rail investment.
  • Scenario 2: Continuation of current government transport policies.
  • Scenario 3: A rail-prioritised strategy led by infrastructure managers.
  • Scenario 4: A pro-rail policy environment with strong public and private sector backing.
Each scenario incorporates assumptions about fuel costs, driver wages, carbon pricing, and network access charges, which collectively influence the competitiveness of rail versus road freight.

Market focus and methodology

The main growth is focused on two principal market segments:


  • Intermodal container traffic, including domestic and international flows to and from ports and the Channel Tunnel.
  • Construction materials, particularly aggregates.


The modelling approach is unconstrained by current network capacity, offering a view of potential demand under each scenario without such infrastructure constraints.



Key findings

A summary of the results for each scenario is as follows:

Base year 2021/22 Scenario 1 2050/51 Scenario 2 2050/51 Scenario 3 2050/51 Scenario 4 2050/51
Million tonnes lifted 82.8 90.7 131.8 196.5 283.8
Billion tonne-km moved 18.2 22.6 32.3 51.2 80.2
Trains per weekday 465 630 766 1,108 1,676


The least favourable scenario projects modest growth, whereas in high-growth scenarios rail freight could more than triple, driven by expanded intermodal services, urban freight terminals, and decarbonisation initiatives.


The demand forecasts are assigned to the rail network. The map below shows the assignment for 2050/51 scenario 2 in terms of freight trains per weekday.



These forecasts provide a robust evidence base for setting strategic targets and prioritising infrastructure development in the Long Term Strategy for Rail. They reinforce the impact of transport policy and infrastructure development, as well as market-oriented development in Strategic Rail Freight Interchanges on the future potential of rail freight.


For more information on the rail freight forecasts, please contact: web.enquiries@mdst.co.uk.