Driverless lorries could dominate UK ferry traffic within a generation
- By Chris Rowland
- •
- 24 Jan, 2020
Were
driverless HGVs to replace much of the UK’s conventional lorry and container
transport within a generation, they would transform the way the RORO market
works in Great Britain
Changes anticipated include significant growth in the market share of ‘driverless accompanied’ RORO traffic according to our new white paper by MDS Transmodal published on 21 January 2020 by the British Ports Association as part of the BPA’s Port Futures Programme.
Technical developments and commercial and environmental pressures are expected to encourage freight operators to look at new and innovative ways to ship the relatively high-value trade that will be transported in trailers through the British ports of the future. The study examines how freight traffic between the British Isles and the Continent could change in the longer term after Brexit. It plots how a large proportion of the UK’s maritime traffic will fare in 2050 under an ‘autonomy and carbon reduction’ scenario in which autonomous and ultra-low emission HGVs have been widely deployed.
The modelling of scenarios using MDS Transmodal’s GB Freight Model (GBFM) suggests that the roll-out of autonomous HGVs would lead to a boost for the accompanied RORO mode, which would secure an 80% market share in 2050, but as this boost in share is largely due to lower driver costs, a new type of RORO traffic - ‘driverless accompanied’ – would be created.
The report concludes that despite hurdles to be overcome before autonomous and ultra-low emission HGVs are operating on British highways, there is likely to be a significant future focus on overcoming these obstacles as operators seek to reduce costs and remain competitive. Furthermore, it would lead to Britain’s short sea transport chains becoming both more efficient economically and more sustainable.
The White Paper can be accessed here: