Future of Freight Demand
Future of Freight Demand
Client: National Infrastructure Commission
Date:2019
To provide an evidence-based analysis for the future of freight transport demand up to 2050, taking into account the state and structure of the UK economy, consumer behaviour, technological change and potential changes in public policy and regulation.
The Question
How might demand for freight transport develop up to 2050 in terms of total traffic and mode of transport, taking into account changes in economic demand by sector, rapid changes in technology and retail logistics chains and potential changes in policy and regulation?
The Solution
- Completed a review of the history of freight transport since the early 20th Century and data analysis to form a view of the key drivers of change in freight demand in aggregate, by source (domestic and international trade) and mode of transport.
- Developed qualitative scenarios for the future of freight transport demand in consultation with the NIC and representatives of stakeholders.
- Quantified the scenarios using a macro-economic model of the global and UK economy (E3ME, operated by Cambridge Econometrics) to forecast aggregate demand and a freight demand simulation model - the GB Freight Model - to model transport impacts in terms of modal split and user and non-user costs.
Achievements
The report contributed to NIC’s thinking on infrastructure development for freight transport up to 2050, which resulted in the publication of its own report entitled Better Delivery: the challenge for freight in April 2019.
The MDS Transmodal report can be downloaded here.