Client: Leicestershire planning authorities (in association with GL Hearn and Iceni Projects)
Date: 2020-21
MDST was commissioned to forecast future new-build rates for large scale warehousing in Leicestershire and the wider East Midlands to 2041, alongside a qualitative assessment of key issues affecting the sector, including decarbonisation of the supply chain, the growth of e-commerce and rail freight.
What is the potential anticipated demand for new-build large-scale warehousing in Leicestershire and the wider East Midlands up to 2041, and how much additional land will be needed to be brought forward in local plans to accommodate it?
How will issues such as decarbonisation of the supply chain, the growth of e-commerce and rail freight affect the sector up to 2041?
The Solution
Reviewed current planning/transport policy and various previous studies;
Produced a qualitative assessment of key issues affecting the logistics sector, including decarbonisation of the supply chain, the growth of e-commerce and rail freight;
Quantified existing large-scale warehouse floor space capacity nationally, in the East Midlands by local authority and in Leicestershire;
Forecast future new-build rates to 2041, taking into account the need to replace a proportion of the existing capacity (due to it becoming life-expired) and traffic growth. This process was informed by MDS Transmodal’s warehouse database (existing capacity) and the GB Freight Model (forecast traffic growth);
Compared existing land supply (including rail-served sites) with the forecast new-build rates, thereby determining the quantum of new land that will need to be brought forward to 2041 in local plans (including land at rail-served sites);
Recommended key areas of opportunity (i.e. where new land should be brought forward); and
Provided advice on drafting new local plan policies on phasing and sequencing.