Tibar Bay port traffic forecasts

Client: Mota-Engil / NV Besix Consortium

Date:2014
A proposed greenfield port development to replace Dili Port in East Timor, required a review of World Bank traffic projections and a new approach to traffic forecasting in the face of poor statistical records.

The problem

Mota-Engil / NV Besix (the Bidding Consortium) had successfully pre-qualified to submit a bid to the Government of East Timor for a 30-year contract to build and operate a new cargo port at Tibar Bay, situated about 10 km to the west of the current commercial port in the capital, Dili.  

MDST was engaged by the Bidding Consortium to provide independent traffic forecasts for the port development and to provide input for a marketing strategy principally aimed at the development of container traffic at the port.

The Solution

The provision of 30-year traffic forecasts: for containers, breakbulks, cars and bulks: 

3 cases, 3 different approaches
  • High case – based on projections of GDP growth
  • Low case – trend based approach (Incl./excl. containerisation of rice) 
  • Central case – based on GDP and TEU consumption per capita in comparator economies (Small Island Developing States: SIDs)

Assessment of transhipment opportunity using MDST Containership Databank analysis of regional container market between the Far East, Europe and Australia

Marketing strategy and Action plan for the port based on position on the regional shipping market (a requirement of the bidding TOR

Achievements

MDS Transmodal developed a forecasting technique based on GDP and TEU consumption in comparator small island economies to tackle the lack of historical data in East Timor.