UK Port Traffic Demand Forecasts to 2030
UK Port Traffic Demand Forecasts to 2030
Client: UK Department for Transport
Date:2005-07
To develop national port traffic demand forecasts for the UK for each cargo type
The problem
The UK Department for Transport needed an independent organisation to develop demand forecasts for UK ports up to 2030, given the potential need for additional port infrastructure development in some key sectors and in the light of European legislation on wildlife habitats.
The Solution
- Port traffic forecasts for UK ports and their hinterland transport infrastructure were developed from baseline data from official port traffic statistics
- Bulk and general cargo traffic forecasts were developed based on the relevant key economic drivers
- Unitload traffic forecasts were developed using the MDS Transmodal World Cargo Database, which uses multiple trend analysis of country-commodity relationships in imports and exports over the period since 1996 and projects traffic volumes forward to specified dates in the future using an algorithm that applies greater weight to trends in the most recent years.
- The MDS Transmodal GB Port Supply & Demand Model was used to determine in which cargo sectors there would be a forecast shortfall in demand up to 2030.
Achievements
The forecasts were published on the DfT's website and were also incorporated into the DfT's National Policy Statement (NPS) for Ports in 2012. The Ports NPS continues to provide the framework for decisions regarding UK port development proposals and associated road and rail links and so the MDST forecasts are still used as a reference for ports that are developing their own forecasts while taking into account local and regional circumstances.