New version of GBFM available

MDST has developed version 7 of the Great Britain Freight Model (GBFM), with a full rebasing of this freight transport demand simulation model to 2024.

The new version of the Great Britain Freight Model (GBFM) - carried out as part of an on-going project to forecast demand for Network Rail – includes a re-basing of the model to 2024. This means that the model, which has been the main freight model in use in Great Britain over the last 20 years, now includes road freight, rail freight and port throughput data for a recent post-Covid and post-Brexit year. This offers a stable baseline for forecasting and the development of scenarios.

The base case of the model contains origin-destination data for some 7,000 geographic zones for both road and rail, split between international freight via ports and the Channel Tunnel and domestic freight. The freight movements between the origin-destination pairs are ‘explained’ by relative generalised costs, using modal cost models which have also been updated for 2024. Forecasts and scenarios can be developed by changing input assumptions relating to, for example, the cost of fuel, taxation and time savings from infrastructure upgrades.

This updated version of the model is now available for use by businesses, policymakers and their consultants to test the impact on freight transport of changes in the business and policy environment and to test the benefits of enhancements to highway, rail and port infrastructure.