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The MHHI for both the Mediterranean-North America East Coast and North Europe-North America East Coast corridors exceeded the 2,500 threshold again in 2026Q2, confirming the persistence of highly concentrated competitive structures across the main Europe-North American East Coast trades. While both corridors remain firmly within a high-concentration regime, the historical evolution and underlying consortium structures reveal important differences in how concentration and competitive overlap are developing. The Mediterranean-North America East Coast corridor recorded an MHHI of 2,801 in 2026Q2, continuing the structurally elevated range observed since 2016. The corridor remains heavily shaped by the dominance of MSC, alongside significant market positions held by Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk. Consortium-related overlap is concentrated around two principal structures: the CMA CGM-COSCO-ONE grouping and the Hapag Lloyd-Maersk cooperation. The North Europe-North America East Coast corridor reached an MHHI of 2,573 in 2026Q2, returning above the 2,500 threshold after a temporary easing during 2024-2025. Compared with the Mediterranean trade, the North Europe corridor exhibits a more fragmented but also more interconnected consortium landscape. In addition to the CMA CGM-COSCO-ONE structure, the corridor includes broader multi-carrier configurations involving Evergreen, Hapag Lloyd and MSC, alongside several smaller bilateral arrangements. The result is a denser network of overlapping competitive relationships, even though the corridor remains somewhat less concentrated overall than the Mediterranean trade. Historically, both corridors have undergone a marked structural transition since the mid-2010s, moving from moderately concentrated markets into persistently high-MHHI regimes. This reflects not only carrier consolidation but also the growing role of alliance-based capacity deployment and consortium participation in shaping competitive dynamics across the transatlantic container trades. The analysis applies the consortium-adjusted MHHI methodology described by Olaf Merk and Antonella Teodoro in https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/s41278-022-00225-x and is based on data from MDS Transmodal’s Containership Databank.

 Global containerised trade (including maritime and overland flows) continued its expansion in 2025, reaching 324.3 million TEU, up 3.4% on 2024. Growth was led by exports from the Far East, which rose by more than 7%. North America, by contrast, was the only region to experience a contraction in exports, down by 2% reflecting the ongoing effects of US tariffs on key trading partners. The long-term view from 2006 to 2025 shows that such shifts are not unusual: trade flows often reroute temporarily in response to shocks, but overall volumes continue to grow, highlighting the resilience of global logistics networks. US trade flows illustrate these adaptive patterns. Exports fell slightly by 2.3% in 2025, with declines to North America (-4.7%) and the Far East (-6.9%) offset by growth to Europe (+5.9%), Latin America (+4.2%), the Gulf & ISC (+2.2%). Imports were broadly stable (-0.7%), though the Far East contracted slightly (-1.4%) while the Gulf & ISC grew by over 10%. These figures suggest that while US–China trade is under pressure, overall flows are adjusting rather than disappearing, and alternative suppliers are stepping in. At the country level, US imports from China fell sharply by 18%, yet total Far East imports declined by only 1.4%, as Vietnam (+23.7%), Thailand (+31%), and Malaysia (+32.9%) counterbalanced the drop. On the export side, US shipments to China also fell 18%, but exports to Vietnam (+48.6%), India (+9.7%), and South Korea (+4.3%) increased. This diversification demonstrates a strategic shift within the Far East, as the US reduces dependence on China while engaging more actively with other regional partners. China’s broader trade patterns reinforce this trend. Exports to the US dropped 18%, but flows to Europe rose 11%, to Sub-Saharan Africa 25%, and to regional Far East partners 10%. Imports into China declined modestly (-1.2%) but showed shifts in origin markets. These movements illustrate the adaptive nature of global trade: when one corridor contracts, others expand to maintain overall flow, demonstrating that trade is like water: it will find new channels to continue moving. Europe and the Gulf are emerging as beneficiaries of these rerouted flows. EU exports increased 2.1% in 2025, driven by strong intra-European trade and Germany’s growth (+8.1%), while imports rose 4%, led by the Far East (+11.6%) and Gulf (+12.1%). This demonstrates the flexibility of global networks: when US–China trade slows, Europe captures displaced flows, maintaining balance in logistics and reinforcing its strategic importance. Historically, similar rerouting has been observed during previous US–China tensions or after systemic shocks like the 2008 financial crisis. Typically, flows rebalance once tariffs or disruptions subside. However, the scale of adjustments in 2025 is notable, suggesting some realignment could be longer-lasting, especially if supply chains permanently shift to alternative suppliers. The overarching lesson is clear: trade adapts. Even under pressure from tariffs or geopolitical shocks, goods continue to move, finding new pathways and alternative partners. For industry stakeholders and decision-makers, the imperative is to monitor not only the total volume of trade but also the changing routes and relationships that define the future of global commerce. The patterns emerging in 2025 offer both challenges and opportunities for infrastructure planning, supply chain resilience, and strategic engagement with emerging markets.